McClintock for Congress Blog

Our lead has again increased slightly today to 889 votes out of 313,609 now counted, giving us a margin of 28/100ths of one percent.  There are now an estimated 57,000 votes yet to be processed.  We are currently receiving 50.14 percent of the votes counted and need 49.22 percent of the remaining vote.  In short, this is still too close to call, but I’d rather be me than the other guy.

The only wrinkle in the count is that we still could lose as many as 1,500 votes out of Nevada County, but we are confident that this will be more than made up from the larger counties that I carried.  If Nevada’s numbers are reported first next week, don’t be surprised if we temporarily slip into negative territory until the much larger counties of El Dorado and Placer report.

My sincere thanks to all of you who have contributed to help us maintain a legal presence as the ballots are being processed, and to all of you who volunteered their time to help as election observers.

Your support and your prayers mean everything.  THANK YOU.

Here’s the latest on the vote count.  Today our lead increased slightly to 827 votes out of 312,693 cast.  Our best estimate is that there are just under 55,000 votes remaining to be counted.  We currently have 50.13 percent of the vote; we will need 49.25 percent of the remaining ballots to win the election.  The good news is that a precinct-by-precinct analysis of the remaining ballots leads us to believe that the overwhelming majority is from Republican strongholds, but as they say, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

Tom McClintock issued the following statement:

November 5, 2008

I wish to thank everyone who voted in the Fourth Congressional District. I am gratified and thankful that my campaign emerged after election night with the lead. I have full confidence in the hard-working and dedicated election officials who are counting the remaining absentee and provisional votes.  I am confident that once the process is completed I will be the Representative for the Fourth Congressional District.

Prop. 1A High Speed Rail Bond.  NO: This is the most outrageously expensive boondoggle in California’s long history of outrageously expensive boondoggles.  The ultimate cost of this project could end up exceeding $90 billion – or $10,000 per family – all for a train that goes from Los Angeles to San Francisco in two hours longer than it takes to fly.  It’s brought to you by the same folks who botched Boston’s “Big Dig.”  (I’m one of the official opponents of this measure.)

Prop. 2 Farm Animals.  NO: Sorry, but farm animals are food, not friends.  Plan on somewhat happier cows and much higher grocery bills if this one passes.

Prop. 3 Hospital Bond. NO: Here’s a rather cynical measure that uses children as a front in order to lavish taxpayer funds on private hospital corporations.

Prop. 4 Parental Notification.  YES: Parents must give written consent before their teenage daughters use a tanning booth or get their ears pierced.  This measure simply requires them to be notified if their daughter is having an abortion.

Prop.5 Non-violent drug offenses.  NO: The fatal flaw in this otherwise decent measure would allow criminals to use their drug offense for leniency for other non-drug-related crimes.

Prop. 6 Police and Law Enforcement Funding. YES: This is a tough call.  My favorite provision is prohibiting the release on bail of illegal aliens charged with violent crimes.  Its principal purpose is to lock up an increasing portion of the state budget for local law enforcement.  Law enforcement should be government’s top priority, but I don’t like auto-pilot spending or using state resources for local programs.  I also don’t like its weakening of the hearsay rule.  On balance I think it does more good than harm, but it’s a very mixed bag.

Prop.7 Renewable Energy Subsidies.  NO: This will send electricity prices through the roof.  It requires the most expensive energy generation to comprise 20 percent of our electricity needs.  Government should get out of the way and let simple economics determine the mix of energy generation in this state.

Prop. 8 Defense of Marriage Act. YES: Marriage is a unique institution in which a man and a woman summon a child into the world – creating a unique tapestry of responsibilities.  Our marriage laws are designed to support those responsibilities and are simply inapplicable to any other kind
of relationship.  Lincoln asked, “If you call a tail a leg, how many legs has a dog?  The answer is four.  Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one.”  And calling a homosexual partnership a marriage doesn’t make it one.

Prop. 9 Parole Reform. YES: This requires the victim to be considered when a suspect’s bail is being set or a criminal’s parole is being determined.  About bloody time.

Prop 10 Fuel Subsidies.  NO: This $5 billion bond will cost taxpayers $10 billion with interest to subsidize “alternative fuel vehicles” and “renewable energy.”  I’m all for alternative fuel vehicles and renewable energy as long as the consumers who want them pay for them.  But don’t reach into my pocket to pay for somebody else’s choice.

Prop 11 Redistricting.  YES: This should be the all-time no brainer: voters should choose their politicians and not the other way around.  This measure takes redistricting out of the hands of the legislature, removing an obvious conflict of interest.

Prop 12 Veterans Bond Act.  YES: This is a self-liquidating bond (meaning taxpayers aren’t on the hook) to assist veterans with home purchases.  The state has done this for many years and it has never cost taxpayers a dime.  I co-authored this one.

This is a press release from the Yes on Proposition 8 campaign on Charlie’s opposition on the initiative to protect marriage. After months of being wishy-washy on the issue, Charlie finally stated his position on last night’s Bruce Maiman Show when a caller repeatedly pressed him on where he stood on Proposition 8.

Charlie Brown’s Extreme Anti-Marriage Support

Yes on Proposition 8’s campaign director Karen England issued the following statement regarding 4th congressional candidate Charlie Brown’s opposition to Proposition 8:

“For California families, there is no other political issue this election as important as saving marriage.  That’s why it is imperative that voters support only candidates who respect traditional marriage. Charlie Brown’s astonishing opposition to Proposition 8 reveals just how out of touch he is with citizens in the 4th congressional district—and the overwhelming majority of Californians and Americans.

“After evading the issue for months, Mr. Brown finally declared that he does not support Proposition 8. This means that Mr. Brown supports four activist judges overturning Proposition 22, and imposing their social agenda on Californians.

“Not only am I working to pass Proposition 8, I’m a resident of the 4th congressional district. I know my fellow voters in this district—they’re my neighbors and friends. In his opposition to Proposition 8, Mr. Brown sides with radical liberals who certainly don’t represent the values of our community.

“Given his outright opposition to the most essential issue to families—the definition of marriage—Mr. Brown is not the candidate voters in support of marriage will ever support.”

A 4th congressional district resident from Roseville, Karen England is the campaign director for Yes on Proposition 8. This voter-supported campaign committee is dedicated to educating voters about the issue of marriage. To learn more, visit www.YesonProposition8.com

Here is a great summary on where the race stands today, written by Roll Call.

California
House
4th district
Incumbent: John Doolittle (R) is retiring
Outlook: Likely Republican

State Sen. Tom McClintock (R) is well positioned to beat retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown (D) and should win comfortably when all is said and done in this solidly conservative Northern California district.

But in a volatile election cycle and with an open seat, it’s too early to put the lid on this race.

Brown ran in 2006 and nearly beat Doolittle despite the strong conservative lean of the district. Brown is campaigning largely on his biography as a career military officer, pledging to work with Democrats and Republicans to get things done for the good of the district.

However, it is notable that Brown’s best tactic is to campaign on his biography rather than his position on key issues, like taxes, abortion and Iraq. Brown would have a better chance in this district if he was a conservative Democrat who opposed abortion rights, was more ardently against taxes and had favored the Iraq War surge.

McClintock is a perfect ideological fit for the 4th district. And even though he represents a state Senate district in Southern California and doesn’t live in the district, he is among the most beloved Republicans in the state.

His name identification in the 4th district is high, courtesy of the several times that he has run for statewide office. Even in losing the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, McClintock won the 4th district, and in doing so, he received far more votes than either Brown or Doolittle.

For all of these reasons, Brown’s attempt to diminish McClintock by labeling him as a carpet-bagging political opportunist is likely to fall short of its objective. It also doesn’t help Brown that McClintock isn’t weighed down by ethical issues, as Doolittle was in 2006.

October 7, 2008

MEMO

Fm: Bill George, McClintock for Congress
To: News Media
Re: Charlie Brown’s Mailer Distorts the Truth
Cal-Tax calls on Brown to Stop Deceptive Attack

Charlie Brown is distorting the record and making wild accusations in an effort to discredit Tom McClintock’s record. Trailing by 8 points in the most recent poll, Brown is fabricating claims in a desperate attempt to deceive voters.

The mailer claims “McClintock voted to make it easier to raise taxes, leaving citizens at the mercy of reckless spending by the state legislature,” and using a quote from the California Taxpayers Association. Cal-Tax wrote a letter to Brown saying “Senator McClintock routinely earns perfect scores on Cal-Tax’s voting records, illustrating that he doesn’t just talk about protecting taxpayers, he backs up his words with a solid voting record. We call upon you to immediately cease using Cal-Tax’s name in this deceptive attack ad.” The full letter is attached below.

A new 60-second radio ad featuring conservative Republican Fred Thompson highlights Tom McClintock’s budget and financial expertise as strong reasons to send him to Congress. McClintock’s independent prudent approach to the $700 billion bailout is in stark contrast to his opponent’s support of Nancy Pelosi’s partisan Democratic approach to the issue. “Democrats, Republicans, and independents all agree when it comes to watching the budget and fighting for the taxpayer, Tom McClintock is the one we can trust,” Thompson says. “I’ll feel a lot more confident with Tom McClintock working on it, rather than some amateur.” The ad will run district-wide and follows a poll that shows McClintock with an eight-point lead in the race.

Radio Spot:
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FT: Hi, I’m Fred Thompson.

I’d like to talk to you today about our fiscal crisis and who we can trust to keep the Washington politicians honest.

Tom McClintock is a nationally recognized budget expert and the voice of fiscal sanity in our Legislature.

Time and time again I’ve heard people say, “If we had only listened to Tom McClintock we wouldn’t be in this mess.”

Well, I wish we had listened. Years ago.

Because believe me, I’ve seen firsthand how Washington can turn a budget surplus into a deficit. The financial crisis our nation faces is complicated, and I don’t think anybody got all the answers.

But I’ll tell you one thing. I’ll feel a lot more confident with Tom McClintock working on it, rather than some amateur.

Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all agree when it comes to watching the budget and fighting for the taxpayer, Tom McClintock is the one we can trust.

TM: I’m Tom McClintock and I approve this message.

Paid for by McClintock for Congress

Likely voters gave Republican Tom McClintock an eight point advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in the race for the congressional seat in the 4th Congressional District. The poll was conducted by veteran pollster Val Smith, Ph.D.  A telephone survey of high-propensity registered voters within the 4th Congressional District was conducted between the dates of Sept 22 and Sept 24, 2008. The sample size of 400 yields a sampling error of less than +/- 5.0%.

McClintock’s lead rose to a 53% to 39% margin when respondents were read campaign messages from both Brown and McClintock.

McClintock has strong support among Republicans with a 72% vote share.

Among independent voters, McClintock captured 37% of the vote compared to Brown’s 48%.  If McClintock can keep the independent differential near the eleven points found in this poll McClintock will handily win the election.

Charlie Brown’s trying to sell himself as a conservative has been a definitive failure.  On the attribution of “conservative” McClintock leads 66% to 9%.  On the attribution of “liberal” respondents identified Brown by a margin of 60% to 7%.  Regarding the attribution of “winning the war in Iraq” Tom leads 58% to 29%.  And on the anti-tax attribution McClintock leads 56% to 18%.

“Voters are focusing on the issues that matter to them and discovering that Charlie Brown lines up with  liberal Democrats on issues that are important to voters,” said McClintock for Congress Campaign Strategist John Feliz. “In uncertain economic times voters look for experienced leadership. McClintock is known and respected for his expertise in complex budget issues and understands how to solve problems without resorting to tax increases and massive government bailouts.”

McClintock was recruited by district residents to run for the seat. His conservative values and record of fiscal responsibility match up with the District’s conservative base.

The Republican voter registration advantage is 16 points.  Ideologically, the district self-identifies itself as conservative by a 2:1 ratio (60% conservative and 29% liberal).  Party loyalty favors Republicans by a difference of 45% to 24%, with a switch vote percentage of 31.

“This poll confirms that our message is being clearly understood by voters,” Feliz said.  “This is in stark contrast to other polls that were methodologically questionable. We look forward to debating our opponent and outlining the stark differences between the candidates on the issues.”

Click here to read the memo from Dr. Val Smith.

Sen. McClintock was on the Armstrong & Getty Show this morning to discuss the defeat of the bailout. He talked about why the $700 billion bailout was bad for our nation. Also Sen. McClintock put forth several measures that can be done now to improve the financial crisis.

Click here to listen to the Armstrong & Getty interview.

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